Career Arcs By Source

Spring of 2023, I went about compiling volumes of player data in an attempt to answer the question “Does the College World Series Matter?”. The premise being that the games in the NCAA conference championships, Regionals, Super Regionals, and in Omaha are compelling drama with seemingly outstanding talent, but at the end of the day, to what extent do any of the games matter in the context of MLB talent futures? You can read it for yourself, but in short, the answer was a resounding yes.

While career earnings and player distribution by source suggest College Baseball does matter, the findings led me to wonder about the variance of Lead Time to Debut and Peak Career Season by source. Do players develop faster in the tutelage of an MLB farm system? If so, how much faster? From a team perspective, GMs certainly want control over a player’s pay as early as possible and want them to reach their full potential earlier so that it is still within the “club control” years. From a player development perspective, is a prospect just as well off spending four years at, say, Evansville, than signing with the A’s as the 18th pick in the 1st round? Are young prospects impeding their professional development by playing college ball? I decided two metrics would best answer these questions: i) Lead Time to MLB Debut by source and ii) Peak MLB Season by source. If, for example, the average Age of MLB debut is 24 and the High School Lead Time is 6 years, College is 2 years, and International is 8 years, then when they enter the funnel (via signing) is irrelevant. If the Peak Season doesn’t move up the earlier they sign, then the age they sign is also irrelevant. Let’s get into the data and what it suggests.

From Signing Day to Debut – Three Years

Merrill Kelly was 18 when he was originally drafted out of a Scottsdale high school in the 37th Round of the 2007 Draft. Drafted. 37th or 1st, still. How many can ever say they were even drafted? Merrill ended up not signing with Baltimore and went on to a prominent Arizona JC.
In 2009, at 20, he was drafted again – Cleveland, 22nd Round. Moved up 15 rounds.
Once again, he didn’t sign. Instead, he opted to continue his collegiate career at
D1 in-state Arizona State. At 21, in 2010, he was again drafted – this time in the 8th
Round. He moved up 29 rounds over the three drafts. Merrill received a reported
$125,000 signing bonus from Tampa. When did he receive his first check on an
MLB payroll and finally get designated “Rookie”? Nine seasons later in 2019, at 30
years old. For every outlier like Merrill Kelly, there is a Paul Skenes who debuts the
very year he signs as a 21-year old. Which is closer to the league-wide average? As you can see to the right, the average for all players, regardless of position or source, is 3.19 years. I had thought that Lead Time might vary meaningfully by position, but the variance from shortest (3B, 3.00) to longest (C, 3.49) is negligible. We’re basically looking at three years and change from the time any player signs until the date they debut.

Next question: How does Lead Time vary by source? Of course, I’d like to know if Wake Forest empirically develops pitchers faster than Indiana State, how Japanese outfielders compare to Venezuelans, and what states produce the best high school middle infielders. I’m not that far yet. What we can see is variance by position and source. Looking at the bottom row of the table is that at an average of 4.28 years, Internationals take the longest to debut. This should come as no surprise considering Venezuelans and Dominicans make up 25% of the 6,236 players in MLB systems and can be signed as early as 16. Sign a dozen a year for no reason other than to legally own their rights as they develop and finish growing and who cares if they take a year longer than any other source? Considering the average International player doesn’t debut until they’re 23, this seems like pretty sound logic from a club perspective. Although, it seems like an absolute meat grinder for the Dominican and Venezuelan teenagers. For what it's worth, I don’t understand how rights don’t expire after, say, three years, like they do in the NHL. The current rules around International MLB free agent signings are tantamount to a wild west land grab, but that’s a deeper story I can tell another time or you can dive into the short version with ChatGPT.

The lows and highs are hard to miss. International Catchers take the longest at 5.88 years. Collegiate 3rd Basemen debut the fastest at 2.50 years from signing. Overall, of the three sources, Collegians are the quickest to debut at an average of 2.71 years from signing date. To me, this also makes sense. While they may vary in terms of what year they leave school (most sign as juniors at 21), it stands to reason that College Baseball players will be physically and mentally more mature and more prepared to hit the ground running. High Schoolers are right in the middle at 3.80 years to debut. With the average high schooler signing at 18.4 years old, only having to wait a shade under four years to debut seems like a fairly low price to pay as a player. The catch here? My assumption going into this was that High Schoolers would debut the fastest since they are fresh malleable lumps of clay, haven’t hit their physical peak yet, and are immediately under the direct tutelage of professional hitting coaches, pitching coaches, physical trainers, and nutritionists. Wrong.

If you find yourself thinking career minor leaguers are dragging the Lead Time down, peek at this sampling of names who are more on the Merrill side of the 3-year equation than Skenes. You might recognize a name or two. Maybe some of these names surprise you. Maybe they don’t.

As fans, we tend to see Luis Arraez, Jeimer Candelario, and Willy Adames and think they have been stars since they came out of the womb. Maybe they have. That doesn’t change the fact that six years went by from the time they signed until the day they made their MLB debut under the bright lights. Not every MLB star hit the ground running like Max Scherzer, Kyle Schwarber, Spencer Strider, Jorge Soler, or Kenta Maeda – all debuted the year they signed. Talk to Joey Meneses (12 years), Ramon Urias (11), and Paolo Espino (11) about the long arduous path they’ve traveled from signing day to debut – they’ll probably ask Arraez, Jeimer, and Willy to hold their beer.

If Collegians sign around 21 and debut faster than High Schoolers (~18) and Internationals (~16), then I think it’s fair to say Age is a bigger factor in the Debut point than we previously thought.

How Many Of Us Peaked At 29?

I think it depends on the topic. I can safely say my baseball skills peaked at 18, but we’re not talking about the tens of millions of us that didn’t play beyond high school. We’re talking about the cream of the crop that get a chance to ride that bus from Modesto to Lake Elsinore. Is Age the prevailing determinant of when MLB players peak? If Internationals, High Schoolers, and Collegians all peak at the same age, then does it really matter if they enter the funnel and sign with an MLB franchise at 16, 18, or 22? Is it possible that the tutelage and development speed isn’t as different as once thought whether a high schooler signs and heads to Single-A Lake Elsinore and High-A Fort Wayne or opts to play at D1 Evansville from ages 19-22? Let’s see what we see in the data for Peak Season by Age and Source.

What jumps out at me are the top and bottom numbers. On the low side, International Pitchers average peak age is 27.79 years. The high point is also represented by Internationals, but it’s at 3rd Base – 30.03 years. The rest all hover around the Age 28.8. It certainly seems to me as though Age is the prevailing factor in when a player has their Peak Season. Yes, there are variances by Source and Position, but the deviation from the average of 28.8 is much smaller than I’d thought it would be. If you’re a data scientist and are looking for bias in the dataset, there certainly is some. Of the 1,053 retirees in the sample size: a) all debuted in 1976 or after, b) 97% had a career WAR of 10 or higher (I did not dive into the low career performers as much as the high), c) I used the position played for the majority of any given retiree’s career, and d) I used WAR to determine peak age. If you care about the specific flavor of WAR I used, I sourced it from FanGraphs and used FIP-based WAR for pitchers.

Key Takeaways

Strictly looking at Positions, Lead Time to MLB Debut does not vary much – the max is 3.49, the min is 3.00. Adding the College/HS/Intl lens, it becomes much more clear where speedy production can be expected (College 3B = 2.50; Intl C = 5.88). Generally, think 3 years when you see draft results or read the list of 150 International Free Agent signings in 2023.

Even by position and source, Peak Season varies no more than 1.5 years. The average settles in at a couple months shy of the 29th birthday. My sense is that looking at specific states for High School, specific countries for Internationals, and specific schools for College will reveal insights that are not visible at the broad level of HS, Intl, and College. As is, 28.8 it is. (Anyone who sees “28.8” and immediately hears the myriad tones of a dial-up modem is giving away their age.)

Expectations. GMs, players, agents, and fans all have different uses of this type of information. True competitors who are in the thick of it will say this information is useless to them. Fair. They’re in it and need to go pedal to the medal with no regard for what is generally realistic. For the rest of us that have no impact on their outcomes, I think it’s fairly telling. Jac Caglianone may go in the top-5. Think 2027 for his MLB Debut. Think 2032 for his Peak Season. Expectations.

What's next?

On Deck: Assessing productivity by source: HS, College, and Int’l.

In the Hole: Success rates by state for HS, school and conference for College, and country for Int’l. Drill-down by position to marry career arc with productivity, payroll/earnings, lead times, and success rates by source.

Further Down the Lineup Card: Adding in the omitted 2,000 retirees who had a career WAR from -5.0 to 10.0.